{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c1f9d62-64f8-4287-ac43-dc2fcd722d20", "symbol": "CNF", "name": "CNFinance Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.549, "architecture_energy": 66.307, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.911, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 14.76, "upward_expansion": 12.78, "deceleration": 42.85, "rotation_down": 70.7, "downward_expansion": 88.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.327, 2.557545, 2.803721, 3.151543 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.215, "trend_reference": 3.729607, "distance_from_trend": -0.406104, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.81703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.812559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.812222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.604464, "excess_performance": -0.730089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.406104, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203034, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.812559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.538122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.604464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.742018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39562, "relative_activity": 0.672155, "balance": 3.742018, "dry_up": 3.35358, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.235034, "annualized_volatility": 0.658588, "from_high_reference": -0.6833, "from_low_reference": 0.085784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.729607, "fair_value_reference": 11.81703, "structural_low": 2.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.017272, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.042247, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.596458, "worst_return": -0.322981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.161404, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.155642, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.108844, "worst_return": -0.51, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.209724, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.185253, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.544601, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.317183, "energy": 48.836777, "activity_lines": [ 2.985667, 3.072091, 3.237882, 3.678308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.62, "volume": 30564, "typical_volume": 24879.8, "trend": 4.192107, "fair_value": 12.573556, "relative_strength": -49.143358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.141177, "energy": 57.962241, "activity_lines": [ 2.847667, 2.984818, 3.143162, 3.56942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.92, "volume": 659738, "typical_volume": 56956.35, "trend": 4.082773, "fair_value": 12.393556, "relative_strength": -41.131607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.074379, "energy": 46.40153, "activity_lines": [ 2.847, 2.955, 3.091157, 3.487348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.39, "volume": 63432, "typical_volume": 56275.6, "trend": 3.95444, "fair_value": 12.19862, "relative_strength": -50.372136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.026669, "energy": 53.696172, "activity_lines": [ 2.681667, 2.831182, 2.999678, 3.378137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.05, "volume": 26814, "typical_volume": 57276.3, "trend": 3.822773, "fair_value": 12.013729, "relative_strength": -56.792478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.002664, "energy": 66.302276, "activity_lines": [ 2.449667, 2.669, 2.887295, 3.25527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.215, "volume": 39562, "typical_volume": 58858.45, "trend": 3.729607, "fair_value": 11.81703, "relative_strength": -53.812222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.549497, "energy": 66.30674, "activity_lines": [ 2.327, 2.557545, 2.803721, 3.151543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }