{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c28bb39-61b2-4abc-996b-40a5da9ea1d3", "symbol": "KMD", "name": "KMD Brands Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.994, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.37, "architecture_energy": 37.687, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.056, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.24, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 11.81, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 44.36, "downward_expansion": 73.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.476333, 1.484909, 1.479648, 1.677945 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 2.078325, "distance_from_trend": -0.278265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.659804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.734973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.116457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.551445, "excess_performance": -0.615151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.278265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.734973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.481165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.551445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.547006, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166440, "relative_activity": 0.444143, "balance": 1.547006, "dry_up": 0.745055, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126282, "annualized_volatility": 0.697613, "from_high_reference": -0.67106, "from_low_reference": 0.22449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.078325, "fair_value_reference": 5.659804, "structural_low": 1.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.044444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.043886, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.27907, "worst_return": -0.424355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.103896, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.1427, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.12766, "worst_return": -0.490143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.15751, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.175122, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.072521, "worst_return": -0.413044, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.408451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.484333, 1.508, 1.555404, 1.881269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.435, "volume": 419313, "typical_volume": 355821.45, "trend": 2.2948, "fair_value": 5.867851, "relative_strength": -49.920719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.093307, "energy": 60.087657, "activity_lines": [ 1.450333, 1.499182, 1.521269, 1.820875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.425, "volume": 212889, "typical_volume": 360855.3, "trend": 2.220697, "fair_value": 5.797183, "relative_strength": -49.358605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.22538, "energy": 58.101495, "activity_lines": [ 1.429, 1.486545, 1.494549, 1.764759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.525, "volume": 318178, "typical_volume": 373962.85, "trend": 2.149928, "fair_value": 5.727157, "relative_strength": -46.315431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.662563, "energy": 47.181621, "activity_lines": [ 1.459333, 1.489818, 1.485044, 1.719875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 166440, "typical_volume": 374744.1, "trend": 2.078325, "fair_value": 5.659804, "relative_strength": -48.116457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.369746, "energy": 37.687065, "activity_lines": [ 1.476333, 1.484909, 1.479648, 1.677945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }