{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c318e9c-41f2-44aa-aa69-5af971aabfa0", "symbol": "AACG", "name": "ATA Creativity Global", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.735, "architecture_energy": 58.664, "architecture_maturity": 17.528, "architecture_confidence": 83.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.72, "rotation_up": 11.77, "upward_expansion": 11.93, "deceleration": 38.83, "rotation_down": 67.97, "downward_expansion": 87.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.90286, 0.942498, 1.014721, 1.025963 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.8602, "trend_reference": 1.03526, "distance_from_trend": -0.169098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.031336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.459478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033483, "excess_performance": -0.220937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.119837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19349, "relative_activity": 0.290241, "balance": 2.119837, "dry_up": 0.270493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175639, "annualized_volatility": 0.591337, "from_high_reference": -0.666512, "from_low_reference": 0.163848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.03526, "fair_value_reference": 1.031336, "structural_low": 0.820801, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035409, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080114, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.338101, "worst_return": -0.24648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.151515, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.217661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.075949, "worst_return": -0.2848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058228, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.199299, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.397021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04023, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177215, "worst_return": -0.447922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109872, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.228171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.20178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277228, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.228145, "energy": 16.393628, "activity_lines": [ 1.013833, 1.065155, 1.08092, 1.06001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.98, "volume": 20863, "typical_volume": 75177.75, "trend": 1.024377, "fair_value": 1.042442, "relative_strength": -31.279554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.34811, "energy": 17.726419, "activity_lines": [ 0.99922, 1.042805, 1.072984, 1.057229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9799, "volume": 24984, "typical_volume": 74379.45, "trend": 1.028143, "fair_value": 1.039814, "relative_strength": -28.264047, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.623516, "energy": 21.391041, "activity_lines": [ 0.991907, 1.023893, 1.064706, 1.05436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8871, "volume": 12753, "typical_volume": 72814.5, "trend": 1.032913, "fair_value": 1.036718, "relative_strength": -33.687233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.719282, "energy": 33.001194, "activity_lines": [ 0.953673, 0.991564, 1.047781, 1.04526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9102, "volume": 15044, "typical_volume": 72126.25, "trend": 1.036583, "fair_value": 1.034092, "relative_strength": -31.907619, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.339578, "energy": 39.867526, "activity_lines": [ 0.93594, 0.968942, 1.033442, 1.037343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8602, "volume": 19349, "typical_volume": 66665.25, "trend": 1.03526, "fair_value": 1.031336, "relative_strength": -37.459478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.735016, "energy": 58.664018, "activity_lines": [ 0.90286, 0.942498, 1.014721, 1.025963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }