{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c31c8b7-e878-478b-93d3-47d250f84424", "symbol": "AERT", "name": "Aeries Technology Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.658, "architecture_energy": 31.283, "architecture_maturity": 69.548, "architecture_confidence": 89.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.3, "rotation_up": 34.08, "upward_expansion": 63.81, "deceleration": 88.1, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 16.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.658, 6.757985, 6.326444, 5.675431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 4.94052, "distance_from_trend": 0.424951, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.410895, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.54318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.598189, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.046036, "excess_performance": 0.858582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.424951, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.54318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220038, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235982, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.414438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.046036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.449891, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47079, "relative_activity": 0.037161, "balance": 0.449891, "dry_up": 0.07337, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148569, "annualized_volatility": 1.140458, "from_high_reference": -0.393103, "from_low_reference": 2.380715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.94052, "fair_value_reference": 15.410895, "structural_low": 2.0824, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010836, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032087, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.131349, "worst_return": -0.283563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.188206, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.250677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.188206, "worst_return": -0.188206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.460351, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.524028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.460351, "worst_return": -0.460351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.271053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247788, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.283563, "active": false 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.979491, "energy": 54.015201, "activity_lines": [ 6.938667, 6.715382, 5.953903, 5.318289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.57, "volume": 138234, "typical_volume": 1463017.5, "trend": 4.777067, "fair_value": 16.398523, "relative_strength": 20.522515, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.126155, "energy": 44.900996, "activity_lines": [ 6.777333, 6.736684, 6.091478, 5.438885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.25, "volume": 50958, "typical_volume": 1377367.95, "trend": 4.846467, "fair_value": 15.90269, "relative_strength": 14.923907, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.110811, "energy": 31.165937, "activity_lines": [ 6.552667, 6.680698, 6.178411, 5.533913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 47079, "typical_volume": 1266903.85, "trend": 4.94052, "fair_value": 15.410895, "relative_strength": 23.598189, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.658194, "energy": 31.282521, "activity_lines": [ 6.658, 6.757985, 6.326444, 5.675431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }