{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c3c4d41-a4e9-43a0-9ec0-89bfac437541", "symbol": "XMAD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Asia Screened Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.974, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.115, "architecture_energy": 22.504, "architecture_maturity": 65.584, "architecture_confidence": 76.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.53, "rotation_up": 16.48, "upward_expansion": 46.43, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 41.88, "downward_expansion": 29.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.979334, 102.036454, 102.116905, 99.359527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 101.260002, "trend_reference": 95.772667, "distance_from_trend": 0.057295, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.466027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.457691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.87419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145864, "excess_performance": 0.094629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057295, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.457691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058742, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.243484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2743, "relative_activity": 0.649139, "balance": 0.243484, "dry_up": 1.01595, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043358, "annualized_volatility": 0.277143, "from_high_reference": -0.08449, "from_low_reference": 0.405218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.772667, "fair_value_reference": 69.466027, "structural_low": 80.089996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039789, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00515, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.16902, "worst_return": -0.046914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288679, "worst_return": 0.047788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.173442, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.10459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281504, "worst_return": 0.06538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 5.729524, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.757955, "energy": 26.885824, "activity_lines": [ 101.340999, 103.53, 101.808191, 98.702882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.864998, "volume": 6535, "typical_volume": 4359.8, "trend": 95.2275, "fair_value": 69.170514, "relative_strength": 3.996179, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.694004, "energy": 26.20168, "activity_lines": [ 100.027666, 102.536363, 101.881309, 98.970333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.260002, "volume": 2743, "typical_volume": 4225.6, "trend": 95.772667, "fair_value": 69.466027, "relative_strength": 5.87419, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.115279, "energy": 22.504243, "activity_lines": [ 99.979334, 102.036454, 102.116905, 99.359527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }