{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c3e4881-3a5c-4d63-9bf5-1f49b51267b7", "symbol": "EEV", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKT (REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.7, "architecture_energy": 21.87, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.73, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.81, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 24.91, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.706853, 11.515689, 11.721084, 12.578118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 13.666729, "distance_from_trend": -0.176833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.580384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.592101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.461806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.276718, "excess_performance": -0.402343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.592101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026975, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.394618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276718, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268863, "relative_activity": 0.938461, "balance": 0.78799, "dry_up": 0.523355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112633, "annualized_volatility": 0.558233, "from_high_reference": -0.520454, "from_low_reference": 0.15524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.666729, "fair_value_reference": 27.580384, "structural_low": 9.73824, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.024218, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035159, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.23426, "worst_return": -0.250705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.089795, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.123686, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.173337, "worst_return": -0.209199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096424, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19044, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088844, "worst_return": -0.350839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 268863, "typical_volume": 286493.4, "trend": 13.666729, "fair_value": 27.580384, "relative_strength": -39.461806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.699821, "energy": 21.870232, "activity_lines": [ 11.706853, 11.515689, 11.721084, 12.578118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }