{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c3e5a69-4b56-44ca-849a-ffc1c7101b2a", "symbol": "ATO", "name": "Atmos Energy Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.346, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.168, "architecture_energy": 26.836, "architecture_maturity": 15.011, "architecture_confidence": 85.28, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 38.54, "downward_expansion": 66.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.086, 174.493818, 175.437018, 176.964825 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 170.19, "trend_reference": 177.185869, "distance_from_trend": -0.039483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 141.557055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.52546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00414, "excess_performance": -0.121485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008752, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125255, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.117026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5474968, "relative_activity": 0.94166, "balance": 1.117026, "dry_up": 0.878783, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036306, "annualized_volatility": 0.172616, "from_high_reference": -0.110967, "from_low_reference": 0.081045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.185869, "fair_value_reference": 141.557055, "structural_low": 166.3301, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012618, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.129474, "worst_return": -0.094064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028088, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025829, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.260139, "worst_return": -0.034093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026233, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.080417, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135602, "worst_return": -0.006875, 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"typical_volume": 5947169.4, "trend": 177.01084, "fair_value": 141.166025, "relative_strength": -8.320673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.837192, "energy": 9.844679, "activity_lines": [ 176.206, 175.138545, 176.208313, 177.404879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.19, "volume": 5474968, "typical_volume": 5814164.2, "trend": 177.185869, "fair_value": 141.557055, "relative_strength": -12.52546, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.167529, "energy": 26.835631, "activity_lines": [ 174.086, 174.493818, 175.437018, 176.964825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }