{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c431e27-5fdd-44d2-a584-9ff490d0257e", "symbol": "IVQ", "name": "Invesque Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.37, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.756, "architecture_energy": 13.628, "architecture_maturity": 29.892, "architecture_confidence": 79.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.34, "rotation_up": 30.94, "upward_expansion": 16.99, "deceleration": 36.78, "rotation_down": 29.84, "downward_expansion": 57.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.126, 0.124182, 0.126286, 0.127774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.129833, "distance_from_trend": 0.001284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.206122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.369305, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.454246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.19185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.369305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8300, "relative_activity": 0.222401, "balance": 0.669059, "dry_up": 0.732181, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08284, "annualized_volatility": 0.452811, "from_high_reference": -0.235294, "from_low_reference": 0.238095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.129833, "fair_value_reference": 0.206122, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.031818, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.522727, "median_excess_return": -0.044342, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.50289, "worst_return": -0.326531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.076059, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059211, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.597015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.168725, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.14252, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.736842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.465646, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.519385, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.772727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.373134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.126357, 0.128151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 33900, "typical_volume": 52005.0, "trend": 0.130667, "fair_value": 0.218686, "relative_strength": -10.283149, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.41614, "energy": 51.746591, "activity_lines": [ 0.119667, 0.122091, 0.126, 0.127817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 50435.0, "trend": 0.13, "fair_value": 0.212276, "relative_strength": -5.800311, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.176126, "energy": 25.363526, "activity_lines": [ 0.123, 0.123091, 0.126143, 0.127774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 8300, "typical_volume": 37320.0, "trend": 0.129833, "fair_value": 0.206122, "relative_strength": -8.454246, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.755873, "energy": 13.627912, "activity_lines": [ 0.126, 0.124182, 0.126286, 0.127774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }