{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c45b584-b7ef-486a-bdea-b434a4d92b10", "symbol": "300230", "name": "Shanghai YongLi Belting Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.575, "architecture_energy": 54.049, "architecture_maturity": 59.299, "architecture_confidence": 94.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 23.54, "upward_expansion": 8.96, "deceleration": 56.46, "rotation_down": 55.91, "downward_expansion": 82.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.167333, 4.20016, 4.380938, 4.532024 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.23, "trend_reference": 4.730248, "distance_from_trend": -0.105755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.305543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.64082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1881, "excess_performance": -0.1955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035859, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48445607, "relative_activity": 1.057808, "balance": 0.724033, "dry_up": 0.951386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052458, "annualized_volatility": 0.256762, "from_high_reference": -0.253968, "from_low_reference": 0.062814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.730248, "fair_value_reference": 4.305543, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.015267, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.018278, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.30094, "worst_return": -0.072289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018628, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.289694, "worst_return": -0.136929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.08422, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.576802, "worst_return": -0.169725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"trend": 4.768915, "fair_value": 4.296157, "relative_strength": -19.045875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.931232, "energy": 74.896791, "activity_lines": [ 4.130277, 4.2409, 4.447771, 4.60154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.21, "volume": 39197200, "typical_volume": 46923654.3, "trend": 4.748581, "fair_value": 4.300786, "relative_strength": -13.315395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.698872, "energy": 63.530461, "activity_lines": [ 4.146667, 4.212423, 4.410831, 4.565481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.23, "volume": 48445607, "typical_volume": 45798104.25, "trend": 4.730248, "fair_value": 4.305543, "relative_strength": -16.64082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.575049, "energy": 54.049479, "activity_lines": [ 4.167333, 4.20016, 4.380938, 4.532024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }