{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c465486-6dcd-41b8-9118-4ad018a0c00b", "symbol": "002168", "name": "Chongqing Hifuture Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.442, "architecture_energy": 38.651, "architecture_maturity": 22.894, "architecture_confidence": 95.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.72, "rotation_up": 20.2, "upward_expansion": 4.72, "deceleration": 51.56, "rotation_down": 52.84, "downward_expansion": 78.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.595333, 3.626364, 3.743429, 3.826172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 3.934, "distance_from_trend": -0.059481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.485449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.314281, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135514, "excess_performance": -0.142914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083177, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036043, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.344238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35196187, "relative_activity": 1.052215, "balance": 0.344238, "dry_up": 0.894702, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072141, "annualized_volatility": 0.227607, "from_high_reference": -0.305816, "from_low_reference": 0.088235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.934, "fair_value_reference": 3.485449, "structural_low": 3.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.053333, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.037511, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.232558, "worst_return": -0.214789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038543, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.490991, "worst_return": -0.187692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.06014, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.801724, "worst_return": -0.441026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062189, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 3.683333, 3.727636, 3.861571, 3.923591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.59, "volume": 29374193, "typical_volume": 35653583.35, "trend": 3.965667, "fair_value": 3.512179, "relative_strength": -11.402381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.519739, "energy": 45.756687, "activity_lines": [ 3.646667, 3.69, 3.829143, 3.899247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.53, "volume": 29876019, "typical_volume": 35026596.95, "trend": 3.966333, "fair_value": 3.502628, "relative_strength": -12.910579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.873318, "energy": 47.818396, "activity_lines": [ 3.602, 3.650545, 3.793048, 3.87114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 25263300, "typical_volume": 35028708.95, "trend": 3.950667, "fair_value": 3.492564, "relative_strength": -11.509286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.495783, "energy": 56.536989, "activity_lines": [ 3.564667, 3.618182, 3.758571, 3.842344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 35196187, "typical_volume": 33449618.8, "trend": 3.934, "fair_value": 3.485449, "relative_strength": -11.314281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.441631, "energy": 38.651351, "activity_lines": [ 3.595333, 3.626364, 3.743429, 3.826172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }