{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c4777cf-0248-42f8-bf13-fa660d2888e8", "symbol": "WUW", "name": "W\u00fcstenrot & W\u00fcrttembergische AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.655, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.362, "architecture_energy": 3.233, "architecture_maturity": 26.386, "architecture_confidence": 58.146, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.55, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 25.35, "deceleration": 54.87, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 23.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.632, 14.654545, 14.556684, 14.581979 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.58, "trend_reference": 14.629113, "distance_from_trend": -0.003357, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.647587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.035533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026793, "excess_performance": -0.20104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003357, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.017595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.017595, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030942, "annualized_volatility": 0.224928, "from_high_reference": -0.089581, "from_low_reference": 0.14246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.629113, "fair_value_reference": 12.647587, "structural_low": 13.048933, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00753, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.01517, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.123656, "worst_return": -0.032467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030863, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.043246, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.174716, "worst_return": -0.061303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005459, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052346, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.195748, "worst_return": -0.208778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.071696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.173698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017871, "worst_return": -0.213097, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078008, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": 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14.624387, 14.510926, 14.568111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 261.35, "trend": 14.570195, "fair_value": 12.628926, "relative_strength": -13.166185, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.801832, "energy": 27.219389, "activity_lines": [ 14.706667, 14.648727, 14.517759, 14.576012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 241.35, "trend": 14.601604, "fair_value": 12.634967, "relative_strength": -13.87023, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.028797, "energy": 24.920664, "activity_lines": [ 14.714667, 14.666545, 14.532035, 14.583096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.62, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 235.55, "trend": 14.615706, "fair_value": 12.64174, "relative_strength": -13.775832, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.524163, "energy": 8.804742, "activity_lines": [ 14.682667, 14.664727, 14.544128, 14.584283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 185.55, "trend": 14.629113, "fair_value": 12.647587, "relative_strength": -16.035533, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.362252, "energy": 3.233353, "activity_lines": [ 14.632, 14.654545, 14.556684, 14.581979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }