{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c509752-742a-469d-8169-e0ea5f430c6f", "symbol": "NS8U", "name": "Hutchison Port Holdings Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.389, "architecture_energy": 29.489, "architecture_maturity": 71.576, "architecture_confidence": 85.768, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.91, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 18.57, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 66.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.187063, 0.184145, 0.191148, 0.196125 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.19, "trend_reference": 0.201528, "distance_from_trend": -0.057205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.149652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.623052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092594, "excess_performance": -0.247429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38151400, "relative_activity": 1.77019, "balance": 1.031546, "dry_up": 1.751206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042642, "annualized_volatility": 0.312191, "from_high_reference": -0.173913, "from_low_reference": 0.127402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.201528, "fair_value_reference": 0.149652, "structural_low": 0.168529, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014042, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.178013, "worst_return": -0.102435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007935, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029635, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.178013, "worst_return": -0.11806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027317, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025625, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.327486, "worst_return": -0.170871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.202715, "fair_value": 0.148475, "relative_strength": -24.328145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.414388, "energy": 88.594393, "activity_lines": [ 0.175448, 0.183945, 0.193822, 0.19856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.185765, "volume": 44891600, "typical_volume": 21452771.7, "trend": 0.202087, "fair_value": 0.148861, "relative_strength": -21.811345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.51024, "energy": 86.062332, "activity_lines": [ 0.178232, 0.18292, 0.192494, 0.197466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.193, "volume": 46541600, "typical_volume": 22574231.7, "trend": 0.201699, "fair_value": 0.149278, "relative_strength": -18.880406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.239308, "energy": 53.289522, "activity_lines": [ 0.183644, 0.18365, 0.191924, 0.19688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.19, "volume": 38151400, "typical_volume": 21552151.6, "trend": 0.201528, "fair_value": 0.149652, "relative_strength": -20.623052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.389026, "energy": 29.488758, "activity_lines": [ 0.187063, 0.184145, 0.191148, 0.196125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }