{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c518876-3a42-4729-905a-f72e1f3916fd", "symbol": "FINM", "name": "Financi\u00e8re Marjos SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.591, "architecture_energy": 30.907, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.167, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.39, "rotation_up": 27.15, "upward_expansion": 60.42, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.95, "downward_expansion": 24.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.439333, 1.526909, 1.417905, 1.257376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.064333, "distance_from_trend": 0.475102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.342054, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.589912, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 82.135541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.325926, "excess_performance": 1.272615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.475102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.342725, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.589912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.491361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.821355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.325926, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4654, "relative_activity": 0.345166, "balance": 1.518888, "dry_up": 0.860357, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138658, "annualized_volatility": 0.965317, "from_high_reference": -0.182292, "from_low_reference": 9.397351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.064333, "fair_value_reference": 0.342054, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073481, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.296, "worst_return": -0.271605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.340205, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.366789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.424, "worst_return": 0.25641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.059385, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.037986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.230769, "worst_return": 0.888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 8.487179, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 8.415946, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 8.487179, "worst_return": 8.487179, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178295, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.268908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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92.133649, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.575636, 1.267381, 1.113462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.6, "volume": 15145, "typical_volume": 12384.95, "trend": 0.980667, "fair_value": 0.31017, "relative_strength": 117.827996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.62828, "energy": 66.964341, "activity_lines": [ 1.709333, 1.612545, 1.31881, 1.155011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.44, "volume": 3912, "typical_volume": 12349.05, "trend": 1.002, "fair_value": 0.318471, "relative_strength": 89.814409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.247393, "energy": 59.485546, "activity_lines": [ 1.611333, 1.607636, 1.351238, 1.184645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.18, "volume": 15904, "typical_volume": 12955.9, "trend": 1.015667, "fair_value": 0.324811, "relative_strength": 51.191238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.647076, "energy": 36.203183, "activity_lines": [ 1.449333, 1.546364, 1.3555, 1.196129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.43, "volume": 21932, "typical_volume": 13499.7, "trend": 1.035, "fair_value": 0.332984, "relative_strength": 75.151512, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.090817, "energy": 30.791573, "activity_lines": [ 1.415333, 1.525818, 1.381667, 1.22286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 4654, "typical_volume": 13483.35, "trend": 1.064333, "fair_value": 0.342054, "relative_strength": 82.135541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.590967, "energy": 30.90704, "activity_lines": [ 1.439333, 1.526909, 1.417905, 1.257376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }