{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c5bbf42-e193-40c5-bc19-85b495c435d3", "symbol": "600207", "name": "Henan Ancai Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.141, "architecture_energy": 78.054, "architecture_maturity": 24.128, "architecture_confidence": 77.575, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.11, "rotation_up": 8.77, "upward_expansion": 18.16, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 77.71, "downward_expansion": 93.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.214, 4.630545, 5.357143, 5.527376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.45, "trend_reference": 5.573667, "distance_from_trend": -0.201603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.829744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078626, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.818035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049145, "excess_performance": -0.005941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.755689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82571659, "relative_activity": 0.426891, "balance": 2.755689, "dry_up": 0.505376, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178911, "annualized_volatility": 0.615629, "from_high_reference": -0.461259, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.573667, "fair_value_reference": 4.829744, "structural_low": 3.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059952, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065868, "worst_return": 0.036184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05036, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144737, "worst_return": -0.100299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047697, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.096144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167866, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134354, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 94358841, "typical_volume": 197394056.5, "trend": 5.597, "fair_value": 4.835, "relative_strength": -22.032883, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.512299, "energy": 72.207175, "activity_lines": [ 4.18, 4.81, 5.485667, 5.601376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.45, "volume": 82571659, "typical_volume": 193425784.35, "trend": 5.573667, "fair_value": 4.829744, "relative_strength": -17.818035, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.140521, "energy": 78.053805, "activity_lines": [ 4.214, 4.630545, 5.357143, 5.527376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }