{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c5c4a80-414b-4e41-8a54-28854eb1eb8e", "symbol": "TTFW", "name": "WisdomTree European Natural Gas ETP", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.509, "architecture_energy": 76.553, "architecture_maturity": 25.027, "architecture_confidence": 77.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 74.97, "upward_expansion": 90.91, "deceleration": 44.71, "rotation_down": 11.04, "downward_expansion": 19.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.613333, 35.799545, 33.778667, 32.534596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.16, "trend_reference": 30.020233, "distance_from_trend": 0.237832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.133937, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.049231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.519836, "excess_performance": 0.339943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219627, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187502, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.260492, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.519836, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6718, "relative_activity": 0.21637, "balance": 0.465367, "dry_up": 0.481809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115571, "annualized_volatility": 0.936569, "from_high_reference": -0.194276, "from_low_reference": 1.295811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.020233, "fair_value_reference": 26.133937, "structural_low": 18.860001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.474823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120161, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 27.08, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 26.645, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"volume": 6718, "typical_volume": 31048.6, "trend": 30.020233, "fair_value": 26.133937, "relative_strength": 26.049231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.508746, "energy": 76.552894, "activity_lines": [ 38.613333, 35.799545, 33.778667, 32.534596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }