{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c5d2d01-0641-4253-b142-f62b7d9631d3", "symbol": "BMAX", "name": "Byggmax Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.998, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.894, "architecture_energy": 41.967, "architecture_maturity": 7.368, "architecture_confidence": 66.761, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.6, "rotation_up": 62.13, "upward_expansion": 46.44, "deceleration": 25.64, "rotation_down": 14.55, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.213334, 51.038182, 49.909311, 50.668561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.0, "trend_reference": 52.10912, "distance_from_trend": 0.017096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.343026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.677344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082331, "excess_performance": -0.143825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222803, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.868271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 723750, "relative_activity": 1.099091, "balance": 2.868271, "dry_up": 0.872763, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04971, "annualized_volatility": 0.291033, "from_high_reference": -0.153139, "from_low_reference": 0.199489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.10912, "fair_value_reference": 43.343026, "structural_low": 44.47523, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020835, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.023294, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194304, "worst_return": -0.188768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04592, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.01269, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.225212, "worst_return": -0.293283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339711, "worst_return": -0.294491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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707308.65, "trend": 52.234029, "fair_value": 42.941376, "relative_strength": -6.723101, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.656455, "energy": 18.984715, "activity_lines": [ 50.866667, 49.567273, 49.32326, 50.714402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.200001, "volume": 424011, "typical_volume": 690846.75, "trend": 52.211908, "fair_value": 43.063574, "relative_strength": -10.736316, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.488053, "energy": 24.394252, "activity_lines": [ 51.423334, 49.992728, 49.41732, 50.64769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.700001, "volume": 329082, "typical_volume": 671103.15, "trend": 52.164602, "fair_value": 43.191742, "relative_strength": -10.609972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.217542, "energy": 23.946344, "activity_lines": [ 51.753334, 50.423637, 49.592973, 50.614664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.0, "volume": 723750, "typical_volume": 658498.75, "trend": 52.10912, "fair_value": 43.343026, "relative_strength": -9.677344, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.894487, "energy": 41.967142, "activity_lines": [ 52.213334, 51.038182, 49.909311, 50.668561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }