{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c5e5235-c884-4adb-86b0-f4400404ca3c", "symbol": "302450", "name": "KB KBStar Kospi ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.285, "architecture_energy": 30.46, "architecture_maturity": 57.218, "architecture_confidence": 94.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.6, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 43.34, "deceleration": 87.37, "rotation_down": 54.03, "downward_expansion": 39.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 68373.526563, 74331.978977, 76555.863486, 73301.554646 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64700.0, "trend_reference": 68145.756641, "distance_from_trend": -0.050565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36058.864583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.794288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.413241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.23574, "excess_performance": 0.005911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217621, "read": "Rising" 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52060.316993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285579, "worst_return": -0.036465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009748, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004135, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.284727, "worst_return": -0.06116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.000528, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091757, "worst_return": -0.105096, "sufficient": false }, 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236263.8, "trend": 67556.691667, "fair_value": 35806.742601, "relative_strength": 0.771613, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.586981, "energy": 22.562178, "activity_lines": [ 71525.335417, 77275.72358, 77429.776209, 73485.857334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64700.0, "volume": 29575, "typical_volume": 234308.85, "trend": 68145.756641, "fair_value": 36058.864583, "relative_strength": 0.413241, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.284961, "energy": 30.459783, "activity_lines": [ 68373.526563, 74331.978977, 76555.863486, 73301.554646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }