{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c649792-c75a-4a25-84f9-6c89dc4a55f6", "symbol": "NH3", "name": "NH3CLEAN FPO [NH3]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.344, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.244, "architecture_energy": 10.375, "architecture_maturity": 23.441, "architecture_confidence": 66.275, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.94, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 45.03, "deceleration": 76.37, "rotation_down": 37.78, "downward_expansion": 34.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.094, 0.096945, 0.098505, 0.095458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.088, "trend_reference": 0.091033, "distance_from_trend": -0.033321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.042696, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.061107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.152227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157895, "excess_performance": 0.094189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.061107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.192135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.624982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.383702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3615162, "relative_activity": 1.246596, "balance": 0.383702, "dry_up": 0.57018, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149913, "annualized_volatility": 0.656357, "from_high_reference": -0.371429, "from_low_reference": 1.146341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.091033, "fair_value_reference": 0.042696, "structural_low": 0.068, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.073186, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.35, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.361529, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.2, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.126648, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.391892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.344118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.260187, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.8, "worst_return": -0.77027, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.632653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", 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0.100855, 0.097595, 0.093572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.105, "volume": 1535611, "typical_volume": 3178975.8, "trend": 0.090767, "fair_value": 0.040548, "relative_strength": 22.555766, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.381084, "energy": 30.465963, "activity_lines": [ 0.103, 0.101073, 0.098819, 0.094501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 240822, "typical_volume": 3076719.3, "trend": 0.090767, "fair_value": 0.041119, "relative_strength": 15.913054, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.173237, "energy": 30.455246, "activity_lines": [ 0.103, 0.100564, 0.09941, 0.095097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.095, "volume": 1311057, "typical_volume": 3028605.0, "trend": 0.0907, "fair_value": 0.041657, "relative_strength": 9.41227, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.077963, "energy": 24.500595, "activity_lines": [ 0.100667, 0.099418, 0.099395, 0.09537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.095, "volume": 1447109, "typical_volume": 2979287.5, "trend": 0.090933, "fair_value": 0.042196, "relative_strength": 6.141985, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.458843, "energy": 9.579977, "activity_lines": [ 0.098333, 0.098727, 0.0993, 0.095647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.088, "volume": 3615162, "typical_volume": 2900026.0, "trend": 0.091033, "fair_value": 0.042696, "relative_strength": -5.152227, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.244073, "energy": 10.374807, "activity_lines": [ 0.094, 0.096945, 0.098505, 0.095458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }