{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c654a00-24b4-43cb-89bb-a44801b6de0a", "symbol": "3087", "name": "Xtrackers - Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.356, "architecture_energy": 49.213, "architecture_maturity": 5.411, "architecture_confidence": 70.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.4, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 26.74, "deceleration": 48.22, "rotation_down": 63.69, "downward_expansion": 49.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 306.906665, 312.979999, 318.497144, 317.237851 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 311.0, "trend_reference": 316.583334, "distance_from_trend": -0.017636, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 240.857313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.251097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034597, "excess_performance": 0.068179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017636, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022511, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3370, "relative_activity": 0.588646, "balance": 0.312214, "dry_up": 0.986026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03955, "annualized_volatility": 0.235081, "from_high_reference": -0.093294, "from_low_reference": 7.007044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 316.583334, "fair_value_reference": 240.857313, "structural_low": 273.600006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004592, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049255, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 6.587382, "worst_return": -0.078717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018886, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.105911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 7.418982, "worst_return": -0.158307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028374, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 7.36749, "worst_return": -0.194549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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326.878182, 322.671907, 320.138066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 320.700012, "volume": 5480, "typical_volume": 6527.0, "trend": 318.286668, "fair_value": 239.202185, "relative_strength": 12.950835, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.387009, "energy": 23.536557, "activity_lines": [ 324.866669, 325.42182, 322.898574, 320.347099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 312.799988, "volume": 7870, "typical_volume": 6455.0, "trend": 318.556667, "fair_value": 239.700903, "relative_strength": 8.030552, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.209484, "energy": 7.04475, "activity_lines": [ 321.273332, 322.665454, 322.370954, 319.993119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 295.700012, "volume": 5350, "typical_volume": 6317.5, "trend": 317.616668, "fair_value": 240.06757, "relative_strength": 0.273423, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.967402, "energy": 35.124383, "activity_lines": [ 312.020003, 317.334546, 320.296669, 318.518497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 303.799988, "volume": 5990, "typical_volume": 6087.5, "trend": 317.033334, "fair_value": 240.454749, "relative_strength": -0.821073, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.125007, "energy": 46.302169, "activity_lines": [ 307.346665, 314.249089, 319.075715, 317.627098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 311.0, "volume": 3370, "typical_volume": 5725.0, "trend": 316.583334, "fair_value": 240.857313, "relative_strength": 2.251097, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.355505, "energy": 49.213092, "activity_lines": [ 306.906665, 312.979999, 318.497144, 317.237851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }