{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c66bbf9-af9b-4463-8afd-2dca3d78cf2c", "symbol": "ELSE", "name": "Electro-Sensors Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "stage_color": "green", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "stage_age_weeks": 15, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "transition_score": 19.967, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 88.399, "composite_score": 77.437, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.131, "architecture_energy": 92.696, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_age_weeks": 15, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.131, "energy": 92.696, "maturity": 75.0, "confidence": 96, "confirmation": 99.959, "age_weeks": 15, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 59.66, "upward_expansion": 95.33, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 7.7167, "10": 7.699473, "20": 7.447844, "30": 6.8225 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 0.981199, "10": 0.71347, "20": 10.441209, "30": 10.97875 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 19.05985, "fan_width_change_4": 14.824873, "fan_width_percentile": 0.990385, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 12.211657, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -9.862645, "price_acceptance": 0.666667, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.49877, "accepted_above": 0.666667, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is advancing.", "body": "Price, trend slope and relative performance are being tested together. A Stage 2 label describes an established evidence state; it is not a buy instruction and late-stage extension still matters.", "phase": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "Stage 2 trend intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 20/100." }, "latest_close": 7.7401, "sma_30": 6.011707, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.287505, "sma_30_slope": 0.21636, "fair_value": 4.600001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.68263, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.081056, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": 32.465582, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -18.598941, "range_position_52": 0.997324, "returns": { "13": 0.01443, "26": 0.79169, "52": 0.842881 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.706369, "52": 0.628046 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 0.0, "2": 100.0, "3": 76.24, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.287505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.21636, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.68263, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": false, "value": -0.081056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.324656, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": false, "value": -0.185989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.79169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.814515, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216427, "ratio_20": 3.107527, "up_down_ratio_13": 12.814515, "dry_up_ratio": 1.303049, "accumulation_weeks": 2, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 7.75, "low_26": 4.22, "depth": 0.455484, "compression": 0.036827, "breakout_distance": -0.001277 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.006061, "annualized_volatility": 0.76076, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.001277, "advance_from_52_low": 0.911136 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"activity_5": 7.7167, "activity_10": 7.699473, "activity_20": 7.447844, "activity_30": 6.8225 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009747, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.03686, "stage_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.215909, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.013808, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.04706, "stage_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.108384, "worst_return": -0.159292, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018839, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.056237, "stage_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214724, "worst_return": -0.252242, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 3, 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