{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c68b7ec-3812-464c-881f-25cbcfb52cd9", "symbol": "XMCH", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.534, "architecture_energy": 25.203, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 37.484, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.4, "rotation_up": 47.97, "upward_expansion": 28.1, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 14.73, "downward_expansion": 50.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.869467, 14.542982, 14.549257, 14.672254 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.286, "trend_reference": 14.9524, "distance_from_trend": 0.022311, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.831785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.383397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024754, "excess_performance": -0.107638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1585, "relative_activity": 0.096612, "balance": 0.249221, "dry_up": 0.944495, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02963, "annualized_volatility": 0.182071, "from_high_reference": -0.278738, "from_low_reference": 0.135999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.9524, "fair_value_reference": 13.831785, "structural_low": 13.456, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.015326, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.00667, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.138138, "worst_return": -0.093067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.064094, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.073678, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.128161, "worst_return": -0.123525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035526, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002257, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.100018, "worst_return": -0.195203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 18738.8, "trend": 15.1276, "fair_value": 13.77931, "relative_strength": -17.343328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.077538, "energy": 67.094576, "activity_lines": [ 14.0368, 14.193018, 14.491657, 14.741351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.29, "volume": 44394, "typical_volume": 18775.8, "trend": 15.0684, "fair_value": 13.792759, "relative_strength": -17.954197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.043763, "energy": 52.15579, "activity_lines": [ 14.106533, 14.177636, 14.454724, 14.687312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.58, "volume": 10925, "typical_volume": 17600.9, "trend": 15.0244, "fair_value": 13.801323, "relative_strength": -15.83361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.69471, "energy": 29.657914, "activity_lines": [ 14.2856, 14.231564, 14.450171, 14.655802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.986, "volume": 5077, "typical_volume": 16761.9, "trend": 14.9926, "fair_value": 13.81399, "relative_strength": -13.256948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.38891, "energy": 19.282312, "activity_lines": [ 14.577067, 14.365055, 14.484876, 14.653325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.286, "volume": 1585, "typical_volume": 16405.85, "trend": 14.9524, "fair_value": 13.831785, "relative_strength": -12.383397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.534204, "energy": 25.202726, "activity_lines": [ 14.869467, 14.542982, 14.549257, 14.672254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }