{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c698a02-18c6-44b1-bda9-481597dcb8ee", "symbol": "FVL", "name": "Freegold Ventures Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.701, "architecture_energy": 26.589, "architecture_maturity": 60.018, "architecture_confidence": 73.862, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 12.03, "deceleration": 61.97, "rotation_down": 43.31, "downward_expansion": 71.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.034667, 1.029273, 1.063286, 1.117978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.18, "trend_reference": 1.220667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033315, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.896667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.982536, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174825, "excess_performance": -0.295246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094237, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174825, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2183900, "relative_activity": 1.057591, "balance": 0.600001, "dry_up": 1.12344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110821, "annualized_volatility": 0.674014, "from_high_reference": -0.385417, "from_low_reference": 0.325843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.220667, "fair_value_reference": 0.896667, "structural_low": 0.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.058653, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.560976, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049013, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.926829, "worst_return": -0.269841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.267081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.360656, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 2538180.0, "trend": 1.291333, "fair_value": 0.882628, "relative_strength": -28.477563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.76257, "energy": 41.078641, "activity_lines": [ 1.052667, 1.061455, 1.110381, 1.184731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.92, "volume": 3097500, "typical_volume": 2473495.0, "trend": 1.276333, "fair_value": 0.885513, "relative_strength": -36.726256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.436501, "energy": 51.671588, "activity_lines": [ 1.01, 1.032364, 1.086333, 1.160774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 2292800, "typical_volume": 2304105.0, "trend": 1.252667, "fair_value": 0.88859, "relative_strength": -34.016137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.918329, "energy": 48.228301, "activity_lines": [ 0.984, 1.013818, 1.068619, 1.13972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.97, "volume": 1705300, "typical_volume": 2228225.0, "trend": 1.234333, "fair_value": 0.892051, "relative_strength": -31.689499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.000167, "energy": 48.243867, "activity_lines": [ 0.973333, 1.001455, 1.05519, 1.121484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.18, "volume": 2183900, "typical_volume": 2064975.0, "trend": 1.220667, "fair_value": 0.896667, "relative_strength": -18.982536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.700895, "energy": 26.588733, "activity_lines": [ 1.034667, 1.029273, 1.063286, 1.117978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }