{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c7338cf-feb2-44f9-a8b3-4d3ecd0efec3", "symbol": "MTF-F34", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) MSCI Emerging Markets", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.029, "architecture_energy": 67.808, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 56.29, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.558, 48.899091, 1258.726905, 2103.933011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.41, "trend_reference": 3064.980667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3648.739872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.795156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989316, "excess_performance": -1.018216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.24042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.840476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129121, "relative_activity": 1.80303, "balance": 0.3864, "dry_up": 0.895786, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.348657, "annualized_volatility": 6.37316, "from_high_reference": -0.990074, "from_low_reference": 0.043319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3064.980667, "fair_value_reference": 3648.739872, "structural_low": 46.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013741, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.000731, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.074225, "worst_return": -0.051948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009521, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.050918, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.100927, "worst_return": -0.132726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026974, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147959, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09168, "worst_return": -0.162347, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", 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"energy": 85.777664, "activity_lines": [ 48.914, 558.262909, 2032.636476, 2743.358839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.56, "volume": 25993, "typical_volume": 75962.45, "trend": 3353.092667, "fair_value": 3692.043462, "relative_strength": -98.876121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.598569, "energy": 68.862183, "activity_lines": [ 48.608, 304.051636, 1753.845905, 2521.123527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.23, "volume": 57281, "typical_volume": 76634.65, "trend": 3211.000333, "fair_value": 3670.442372, "relative_strength": -98.802231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.140605, "energy": 68.098335, "activity_lines": [ 48.708667, 134.806545, 1495.90219, 2307.971097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.41, "volume": 129121, "typical_volume": 71613.35, "trend": 3064.980667, "fair_value": 3648.739872, "relative_strength": -98.795156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.029006, "energy": 67.808289, "activity_lines": [ 48.558, 48.899091, 1258.726905, 2103.933011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }