{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c7343b3-0203-4978-8f13-8ffcbdae0c99", "symbol": "OEC", "name": "Orion Engineered Carbons SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.688, "architecture_energy": 18.978, "architecture_maturity": 29.505, "architecture_confidence": 45.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.69, "rotation_up": 44.62, "upward_expansion": 63.39, "deceleration": 65.27, "rotation_down": 18.84, "downward_expansion": 11.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.904, 6.783545, 6.937294, 6.782687 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.24, "trend_reference": 6.602454, "distance_from_trend": 0.096562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.358477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.495768, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.242065, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034308, "excess_performance": -0.091317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096562, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.495768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2692707, "relative_activity": 0.969403, "balance": 0.633329, "dry_up": 0.933934, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160411, "annualized_volatility": 0.751544, "from_high_reference": -0.327772, "from_low_reference": 0.684825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.602454, "fair_value_reference": 14.358477, "structural_low": 4.517014, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.005784, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.016121, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.272408, "worst_return": -0.155351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.125479, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.00697, "worst_return": -0.241578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.14728, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.097041, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.153829, "worst_return": -0.369579, "sufficient": true }, { 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3224051, "typical_volume": 3079853.5, "trend": 6.448878, "fair_value": 14.63009, "relative_strength": -8.637864, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.994401, "energy": 20.347569, "activity_lines": [ 6.37094, 6.736068, 6.861925, 6.688665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.99, "volume": 2465131, "typical_volume": 3008097.75, "trend": 6.511432, "fair_value": 14.537692, "relative_strength": -4.705615, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.992165, "energy": 17.133785, "activity_lines": [ 6.52335, 6.750862, 6.896483, 6.723576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 1994851, "typical_volume": 2886667.95, "trend": 6.562346, "fair_value": 14.449775, "relative_strength": -7.933497, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.71805, "energy": 9.892846, "activity_lines": [ 6.623891, 6.720387, 6.898302, 6.738968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.24, "volume": 2692707, "typical_volume": 2777695.1, "trend": 6.602454, "fair_value": 14.358477, "relative_strength": -3.242065, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.687795, "energy": 18.977839, "activity_lines": [ 6.904, 6.783545, 6.937294, 6.782687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }