{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c7bcd70-d69d-4807-baa9-4208009b8a1c", "symbol": "SOFTX", "name": "SoftOx Solutions AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.714, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.359, "architecture_energy": 47.993, "architecture_maturity": 7.584, "architecture_confidence": 78.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.7, "rotation_up": 15.04, "upward_expansion": 24.76, "deceleration": 50.31, "rotation_down": 66.47, "downward_expansion": 54.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.087853, 0.094129, 0.102258, 0.099414 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0856, "trend_reference": 0.092023, "distance_from_trend": -0.069801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.842219, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.898364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.184129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.426667, "excess_performance": 0.301673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.898364, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028567, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201713, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.426667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.422322, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24873313, "relative_activity": 0.167415, "balance": 0.422322, "dry_up": 0.210829, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194375, "annualized_volatility": 0.751197, "from_high_reference": -0.483715, "from_low_reference": 0.746939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.092023, "fair_value_reference": 0.842219, "structural_low": 0.049, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136951, "worst_return": -0.026667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051094, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026667, "worst_return": -0.075521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.341615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.202854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.706667, "worst_return": -0.023438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.348958, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.369211, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.348958, "worst_return": -0.348958, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.807692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.305913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.9971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.308036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.439759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.30273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.112028, "energy": 14.318438, "activity_lines": [ 0.097293, 0.104349, 0.107121, 0.100165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.088, "volume": 23464300, "typical_volume": 164360857.6, "trend": 0.09152, "fair_value": 0.944052, "relative_strength": -10.433062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.232383, "energy": 29.112644, "activity_lines": [ 0.09284, 0.100487, 0.105657, 0.099996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0885, "volume": 22819195, "typical_volume": 155533998.05, "trend": 0.091603, "fair_value": 0.892952, "relative_strength": -9.730103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.536927, "energy": 42.584373, "activity_lines": [ 0.09002, 0.097298, 0.104127, 0.099801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0856, "volume": 24873313, "typical_volume": 148572725.9, "trend": 0.092023, "fair_value": 0.842219, "relative_strength": -12.184129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.358765, "energy": 47.992935, "activity_lines": [ 0.087853, 0.094129, 0.102258, 0.099414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }