{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c81ea34-024e-47a1-9efc-cd695e5fdf12", "symbol": "PACS", "name": "PACSCo Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.3, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.053, "architecture_energy": 18.149, "architecture_maturity": 36.755, "architecture_confidence": 68.475, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.31, "rotation_up": 18.0, "upward_expansion": 14.33, "deceleration": 62.67, "rotation_down": 53.4, "downward_expansion": 41.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004221, 0.004559, 0.005282, 0.005051 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.004, "trend_reference": 0.004768, "distance_from_trend": -0.161132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.007342, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.455217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.271477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071926, "excess_performance": -0.123161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.455217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.98148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59245, "relative_activity": 0.038552, "balance": 1.98148, "dry_up": 0.33089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.621923, "annualized_volatility": 1.578583, "from_high_reference": -0.587629, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004768, "fair_value_reference": 0.007342, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038212, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.090995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052133, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052133, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029412, "worst_return": -0.37037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.552703, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.596066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.351852, "worst_return": -0.753555, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-05-06", "end": "2022-05-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-05-20", "end": "2022-05-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-06-03", "end": "2022-06-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2022-09-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.610951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.522222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0135, "volume": 1172, "typical_volume": 56459.6, "trend": 0.016897, "fair_value": 0.045567, "relative_strength": -52.555264, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.911191, 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"direction": 21.457978, "energy": 20.476165, "activity_lines": [ 0.00539, 0.006402, 0.005661, 0.005224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0048, "volume": 538831, "typical_volume": 1549052.35, "trend": 0.004818, "fair_value": 0.007583, "relative_strength": -5.917497, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.778438, "energy": 24.864966, "activity_lines": [ 0.0049, 0.006095, 0.005643, 0.005223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00351, "volume": 1763060, "typical_volume": 1615738.9, "trend": 0.004785, "fair_value": 0.007519, "relative_strength": -31.10966, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.956443, "energy": 22.584778, "activity_lines": [ 0.00426, 0.005531, 0.005497, 0.005139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 208437, "typical_volume": 1537648.55, "trend": 0.004785, "fair_value": 0.007461, "relative_strength": -12.347349, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.930769, "energy": 18.861361, "activity_lines": [ 0.004316, 0.005192, 0.005446, 0.00512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 3233, "typical_volume": 1534899.65, "trend": 0.004785, "fair_value": 0.007403, "relative_strength": -12.934258, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.036054, "energy": 15.605955, "activity_lines": [ 0.004359, 0.00488, 0.00539, 0.005102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.004, "volume": 59245, "typical_volume": 1536744.35, "trend": 0.004768, "fair_value": 0.007342, "relative_strength": -22.271477, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.053308, "energy": 18.148704, "activity_lines": [ 0.004221, 0.004559, 0.005282, 0.005051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }