{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c89fdb4-04bc-4444-8a13-b73d09a5f2e0", "symbol": "XMEA", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EM Europe, Middle East & Africa ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.323, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.87, "architecture_energy": 49.25, "architecture_maturity": 8.574, "architecture_confidence": 79.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.37, "rotation_up": 55.04, "upward_expansion": 78.25, "deceleration": 55.31, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 9.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.36, 44.136909, 43.702405, 43.441398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.875, "trend_reference": 43.394167, "distance_from_trend": 0.05717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.336859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336028, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.191321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035203, "excess_performance": -0.135689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.945589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4765, "relative_activity": 3.408563, "balance": 1.945589, "dry_up": 1.51436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024305, "annualized_volatility": 0.230237, "from_high_reference": -0.012379, "from_low_reference": 0.269018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.394167, "fair_value_reference": 34.336859, "structural_low": 38.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008084, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002597, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.077616, "worst_return": -0.087667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026613, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039715, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.074901, "worst_return": -0.047902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075314, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.061541, "worst_return": -0.075144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 39.123086, "activity_lines": [ 43.968333, 43.768272, 43.316166, 43.251763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.580002, "volume": 182, "typical_volume": 1868.85, "trend": 43.225833, "fair_value": 34.106603, "relative_strength": -9.004899, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.6352, "energy": 7.460338, "activity_lines": [ 43.456667, 43.607818, 43.294881, 43.212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.200001, "volume": 2361, "typical_volume": 1282.95, "trend": 43.2935, "fair_value": 34.216154, "relative_strength": -6.044266, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.286545, "energy": 11.319539, "activity_lines": [ 43.645001, 43.737273, 43.426548, 43.274849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.875, "volume": 4765, "typical_volume": 1397.95, "trend": 43.394167, "fair_value": 34.336859, "relative_strength": -5.191321, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.869607, "energy": 49.25009, "activity_lines": [ 44.36, 44.136909, 43.702405, 43.441398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }