{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6c8a4f88-cbd2-4b2c-a1cd-069a4d60f817", "symbol": "JANP", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 12 ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.844, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.688, "architecture_energy": 78.54, "architecture_maturity": 36.145, "architecture_confidence": 81.233, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.86, "rotation_up": 71.17, "upward_expansion": 94.56, "deceleration": 42.05, "rotation_down": 20.53, "downward_expansion": 16.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.03628, 34.82116, 34.546814, 34.118728 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.425, "trend_reference": 33.63763, "distance_from_trend": 0.053136, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.804252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.984589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073056, "excess_performance": -0.052569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053136, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01911, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073056, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.324401, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44391, "relative_activity": 1.01486, "balance": 2.324401, "dry_up": 0.739015, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013837, "annualized_volatility": 0.098478, "from_high_reference": -0.002113, "from_low_reference": 0.150603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.63763, "fair_value_reference": 29.804252, "structural_low": 31.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010401, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.000341, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.031358, "worst_return": -0.036302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03067, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011176, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053549, "worst_return": -0.005818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034406, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.087282, "worst_return": 0.056724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.901483, "energy": 62.343366, "activity_lines": [ 34.689067, 34.591727, 34.291081, 33.90184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.9784, "volume": 20587, "typical_volume": 43470.95, "trend": 33.55863, "fair_value": 29.762617, "relative_strength": -1.988969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.021123, "energy": 70.155393, "activity_lines": [ 34.83252, 34.67192, 34.404401, 33.998317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.425, "volume": 44391, "typical_volume": 43741.0, "trend": 33.63763, "fair_value": 29.804252, "relative_strength": -3.984589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.688324, "energy": 78.540287, "activity_lines": [ 35.03628, 34.82116, 34.546814, 34.118728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }