{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ca7a4f4-0abf-4deb-8ea1-716352be3f6d", "symbol": "WISE", "name": "Wise Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.494, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.199, "architecture_energy": 57.655, "architecture_maturity": 14.097, "architecture_confidence": 64.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 19.52, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 43.72, "rotation_down": 66.38, "downward_expansion": 62.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.07, 14.642727, 15.696191, 16.111613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.65, "trend_reference": 16.081667, "distance_from_trend": -0.151207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.750962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.081236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087649, "excess_performance": 0.026155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6095, "relative_activity": 0.359145, "balance": 0.976337, "dry_up": 0.676557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13694, "annualized_volatility": 0.655837, "from_high_reference": -0.35, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.081667, "fair_value_reference": 19.750962, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019494, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00076, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.049383, "worst_return": -0.185841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.114726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024691, "worst_return": -0.254144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.188715, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.199951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.148148, "worst_return": -0.229282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.301105, 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"2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042763, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.700001, "volume": 7281, "typical_volume": 29004.8, "trend": 40.702815, "fair_value": 34.726346, "relative_strength": -16.665823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.89758, "energy": 58.581048, "activity_lines": [ 33.9, 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[ 15.67, 16.335455, 16.973095, 16.629247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.5, "volume": 4589, "typical_volume": 26702.2, "trend": 15.953333, "fair_value": 20.274359, "relative_strength": -8.038367, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.838204, "energy": 27.98908, "activity_lines": [ 15.603334, 16.105455, 16.802619, 16.606774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.6, "volume": 8699, "typical_volume": 25204.85, "trend": 16.043333, "fair_value": 20.151282, "relative_strength": -11.941857, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.131661, "energy": 24.316277, "activity_lines": [ 15.326667, 15.74, 16.552143, 16.519462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.3, "volume": 16506, "typical_volume": 21127.15, "trend": 15.99, "fair_value": 20.016026, "relative_strength": -14.560879, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.336441, "energy": 25.580072, "activity_lines": [ 14.99, 15.370909, 16.281667, 16.406989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8, "volume": 14627, "typical_volume": 18750.2, "trend": 16.038333, "fair_value": 19.88141, "relative_strength": -18.175705, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.369028, "energy": 46.92331, "activity_lines": [ 14.53, 14.977273, 15.983571, 16.265699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 6095, "typical_volume": 16970.85, "trend": 16.081667, "fair_value": 19.750962, "relative_strength": -20.081236, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.199244, "energy": 57.654809, "activity_lines": [ 14.07, 14.642727, 15.696191, 16.111613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }