{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6caaa0f0-bfbd-4506-994c-a4e86c8548f2", "symbol": "000155", "name": "Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.656, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.531, "architecture_energy": 51.156, "architecture_maturity": 31.281, "architecture_confidence": 94.252, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 8.86, "deceleration": 55.08, "rotation_down": 48.94, "downward_expansion": 79.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.784, 11.853636, 13.039429, 13.609011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.04, "trend_reference": 13.920333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.541258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.003878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031376, "excess_performance": -0.038775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043214, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.389898, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 203875428, "relative_activity": 0.758726, "balance": 0.389898, "dry_up": 0.906872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093279, "annualized_volatility": 0.452668, "from_high_reference": -0.377456, "from_low_reference": 0.232025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.920333, "fair_value_reference": 11.541258, "structural_low": 10.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.003487, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012154, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.213691, "worst_return": -0.150729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018692, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.076953, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.314894, "worst_return": -0.214401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0321, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048682, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171599, "worst_return": -0.170964, "sufficient": true }, { 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13.910333, "fair_value": 11.584765, "relative_strength": -13.943008, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.823847, "energy": 81.130237, "activity_lines": [ 11.374667, 12.202364, 13.725238, 13.980968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.66, "volume": 287677433, "typical_volume": 274185408.65, "trend": 13.907667, "fair_value": 11.567568, "relative_strength": -7.601, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.823252, "energy": 82.657903, "activity_lines": [ 11.354, 11.963818, 13.452857, 13.835785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.26, "volume": 318288212, "typical_volume": 271584913.65, "trend": 13.907333, "fair_value": 11.555336, "relative_strength": -1.39944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.315124, "energy": 69.979019, "activity_lines": [ 11.614, 11.910182, 13.249714, 13.729484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.04, "volume": 203875428, "typical_volume": 268707487.15, "trend": 13.920333, "fair_value": 11.541258, "relative_strength": -8.003878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.531044, "energy": 51.155539, "activity_lines": [ 11.784, 11.853636, 13.039429, 13.609011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }