{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cb07826-b948-466c-9427-ae8d9c737707", "symbol": "HVO", "name": "hVIVO plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.775, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.972, "architecture_energy": 29.553, "architecture_maturity": 12.285, "architecture_confidence": 56.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.28, "rotation_up": 24.16, "upward_expansion": 11.89, "deceleration": 50.81, "rotation_down": 50.25, "downward_expansion": 51.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071233, 0.072045, 0.074979, 0.075562 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.069, "trend_reference": 0.074883, "distance_from_trend": -0.078567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.169395, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.592668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.026463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131148, "excess_performance": 0.079912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.592668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150265, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013059, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5569521, "relative_activity": 0.556919, "balance": 1.330287, "dry_up": 0.631873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109632, "annualized_volatility": 0.859518, "from_high_reference": -0.386667, "from_low_reference": 0.602787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.074883, "fair_value_reference": 0.169395, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228911, "worst_return": -0.169997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.160001, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.185187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.160001, "worst_return": -0.160001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.239997, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.306378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.239997, "worst_return": -0.239997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188235, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.075, "volume": 9537567, "typical_volume": 10258992.15, "trend": 0.074317, "fair_value": 0.170769, "relative_strength": -8.536964, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.979657, "energy": 46.660478, "activity_lines": [ 0.0707, 0.073791, 0.075802, 0.075947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 6132471, "typical_volume": 10182449.55, "trend": 0.07465, "fair_value": 0.170085, "relative_strength": -9.89472, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.901015, "energy": 34.486096, "activity_lines": [ 0.071967, 0.073309, 0.075614, 0.075927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.069, "volume": 5569521, "typical_volume": 10000588.5, "trend": 0.074883, "fair_value": 0.169395, "relative_strength": -15.026463, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.972497, "energy": 29.553368, "activity_lines": [ 0.071233, 0.072045, 0.074979, 0.075562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }