{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cb54a4d-648f-43e5-afbf-0b563f07c6a9", "symbol": "SADU", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA ESG Selection UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.875, "architecture_energy": 61.373, "architecture_maturity": 65.074, "architecture_confidence": 78.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.49, "rotation_up": 48.91, "upward_expansion": 77.72, "deceleration": 91.46, "rotation_down": 29.84, "downward_expansion": 15.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.780002, 135.648747, 133.875215, 130.494289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 139.600006, "trend_reference": 126.802401, "distance_from_trend": 0.100926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.885001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29397, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.420598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155524, "excess_performance": 0.102213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29397, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064206, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053453, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.051483, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7666, "relative_activity": 1.247386, "balance": 3.051483, "dry_up": 0.779616, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018415, "annualized_volatility": 0.148438, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.268803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.802401, "fair_value_reference": 107.885001, "structural_low": 110.277, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.078049, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078049, "worst_return": -0.078049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.129408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.175722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129408, "worst_return": 0.129408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.081551, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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128.064863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 133.639999, "volume": 5235, "typical_volume": 9268.8, "trend": 125.436401, "fair_value": 107.293108, "relative_strength": 7.13755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.132781, "energy": 63.348054, "activity_lines": [ 135.496668, 135.392401, 131.769763, 128.622657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.169998, "volume": 3099, "typical_volume": 8097.55, "trend": 125.818101, "fair_value": 107.476632, "relative_strength": 6.104517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.733563, "energy": 55.15104, "activity_lines": [ 134.641333, 135.081091, 132.327377, 129.121598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.75, "volume": 3165, "typical_volume": 6951.85, "trend": 126.255201, "fair_value": 107.661656, "relative_strength": 4.664595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.604958, "energy": 45.564813, "activity_lines": [ 134.198666, 134.837582, 132.866324, 129.633334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.600006, "volume": 7666, "typical_volume": 6145.65, "trend": 126.802401, "fair_value": 107.885001, "relative_strength": 6.420598, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.875489, "energy": 61.373029, "activity_lines": [ 135.780002, 135.648747, 133.875215, 130.494289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }