{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6cbe4c72-9182-4fe0-b001-451791b66b39",
    "symbol": "PAEU",
    "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe ESG Climate Paris Aligned UCITS EUR Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.672,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.345,
    "architecture_energy": 74.962,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.779,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.327,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.58,
        "rotation_up": 62.28,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 67.97,
        "rotation_down": 28.82,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
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      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.507,
    "trend_reference": 6.0602,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.073727,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.314843,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224307,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.996041,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.085948,
    "excess_performance": -0.084944,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073727,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036664,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.224307,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066892,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04996,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026707,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085948,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 12.984324,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 18094,
      "relative_activity": 4.374547,
      "balance": 12.984324,
      "dry_up": 2.392111,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
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    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010084,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.125199,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002606,
      "from_low_reference": 0.19702
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 5.314843,
      "structural_low": 5.664,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 25,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0091,
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        "best_return": 0.062462,
        "worst_return": -0.047556,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.010749,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 5.205426,
        "relative_strength": -4.76296,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -4.24267,
        "stage": 2,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 95.168489,
        "energy": 97.958161,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 2316.5,
        "trend": 5.999433,
        "fair_value": 5.277317,
        "relative_strength": -4.098089,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.529029,
        "energy": 78.525329,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.078634
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.382,
        "volume": 16602,
        "typical_volume": 3021.45,
        "trend": 6.020733,
        "fair_value": 5.289503,
        "relative_strength": -3.738332,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.042792,
        "energy": 68.901802,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.392,
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          6.182105,
          6.103316
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.408,
        "volume": 4201,
        "typical_volume": 3231.5,
        "trend": 6.040433,
        "fair_value": 5.301856,
        "relative_strength": -3.82322,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.286724,
        "energy": 68.008372,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.399667,
          6.367309,
          6.216024,
          6.128301
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.507,
        "volume": 18094,
        "typical_volume": 4136.2,
        "trend": 6.0602,
        "fair_value": 5.314843,
        "relative_strength": -4.996041,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.344801,
        "energy": 74.962314,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.4362,
          6.399636,
          6.257033,
          6.158402
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}