{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cc678e2-7e37-4a46-9502-3427e34a25f0", "symbol": "300472", "name": "New Universal Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.666, "architecture_energy": 63.07, "architecture_maturity": 17.889, "architecture_confidence": 82.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.16, "rotation_up": 11.31, "upward_expansion": 12.47, "deceleration": 41.47, "rotation_down": 69.29, "downward_expansion": 85.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.568667, 6.834364, 7.438905, 7.629312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.83, "trend_reference": 7.793333, "distance_from_trend": -0.12361, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.947372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.098495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170109, "excess_performance": -0.177509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120985, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.866755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15430819, "relative_activity": 0.666468, "balance": 0.866755, "dry_up": 0.870716, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116117, "annualized_volatility": 0.410478, "from_high_reference": -0.388541, "from_low_reference": 0.507726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.793333, "fair_value_reference": 6.947372, "structural_low": 5.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.01876, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.014718, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.684746, "worst_return": -0.331002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044037, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.986456, "worst_return": -0.326276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.131148, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033291, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.585082, "worst_return": -0.346895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.584667, 7.107636, 7.66581, 7.781183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.52, "volume": 18137980, "typical_volume": 25074897.15, "trend": 7.822333, "fair_value": 6.964744, "relative_strength": -11.402735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.802788, "energy": 77.566154, "activity_lines": [ 6.487333, 6.919091, 7.535762, 7.693333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.83, "volume": 15430819, "typical_volume": 23153139.05, "trend": 7.793333, "fair_value": 6.947372, "relative_strength": -12.098495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.666027, "energy": 63.069568, "activity_lines": [ 6.568667, 6.834364, 7.438905, 7.629312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }