{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cd08d86-6630-448c-b119-26367cf95d1d", "symbol": "5240", "name": "ACTi Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.482, "architecture_energy": 82.715, "architecture_maturity": 13.491, "architecture_confidence": 93.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.6, "rotation_up": 13.55, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 70.23, "downward_expansion": 94.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.363333, 18.170115, 20.813605, 21.86104 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.950001, "trend_reference": 22.1286, "distance_from_trend": -0.143642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.662194, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.207856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035808, "excess_performance": -0.405564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26156, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035808, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 264200, "relative_activity": 1.668226, "balance": 0.949431, "dry_up": 0.712434, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110374, "annualized_volatility": 0.95566, "from_high_reference": -0.47792, "from_low_reference": 0.302406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.1286, "fair_value_reference": 25.662194, "structural_low": 14.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020584, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.727459, "worst_return": -0.245902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026415, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010583, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.790984, "worst_return": -0.282815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.155607, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.115816, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.213115, "worst_return": -0.438276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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215933.45, "trend": 22.475097, "fair_value": 25.866464, "relative_strength": -38.256872, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.271318, "energy": 68.971628, "activity_lines": [ 19.375971, 21.130658, 23.412365, 23.212791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 46913, "typical_volume": 214941.0, "trend": 22.35534, "fair_value": 25.815113, "relative_strength": -42.283969, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.379881, "energy": 81.779532, "activity_lines": [ 18.219029, 20.10887, 22.693499, 22.846655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 74278, "typical_volume": 169711.1, "trend": 22.201926, "fair_value": 25.750324, "relative_strength": -46.001472, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.908245, "energy": 84.513705, "activity_lines": [ 17.033333, 18.982127, 21.843772, 22.397924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 65927, "typical_volume": 151283.2, "trend": 22.119773, "fair_value": 25.699358, "relative_strength": -41.210101, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.892132, "energy": 87.390653, "activity_lines": [ 16.75, 18.336637, 21.219567, 22.065541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 264200, "typical_volume": 158371.85, "trend": 22.1286, "fair_value": 25.662194, "relative_strength": -36.207856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.481798, "energy": 82.714689, "activity_lines": [ 17.363333, 18.170115, 20.813605, 21.86104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }