{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cd8efe6-4f46-45ed-8e59-d39ea1443ff9", "symbol": "8423", "name": "Polygreen Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.278, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.443, "architecture_energy": 16.125, "architecture_maturity": 16.209, "architecture_confidence": 63.408, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.75, "rotation_up": 25.73, "upward_expansion": 19.3, "deceleration": 41.4, "rotation_down": 31.25, "downward_expansion": 55.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.789999, 17.76909, 17.795476, 17.963441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.799999, "trend_reference": 18.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.02162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.690333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.161383, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048128, "excess_performance": -0.4895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44702, "relative_activity": 0.504238, "balance": 0.907719, "dry_up": 0.842082, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030251, "annualized_volatility": 0.125017, "from_high_reference": -0.10101, "from_low_reference": 0.037901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.193333, "fair_value_reference": 18.690333, "structural_low": 17.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007863, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.034303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039548, "worst_return": -0.082774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005464, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111186, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.073584, "worst_return": -0.080537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016866, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.085914, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.242938, "worst_return": -0.167785, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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"down", "direction": -53.091886, "energy": 40.726632, "activity_lines": [ 17.743333, 17.753636, 17.981667, 18.134409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.85, "volume": 83915, "typical_volume": 103681.45, "trend": 18.213334, "fair_value": 18.671454, "relative_strength": -33.425869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.842046, "energy": 29.774164, "activity_lines": [ 17.78, 17.765455, 17.945, 18.111183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.6, "volume": 31101, "typical_volume": 101190.3, "trend": 18.21, "fair_value": 18.676529, "relative_strength": -29.393078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.752295, "energy": 34.279709, "activity_lines": [ 17.726667, 17.733636, 17.88881, 18.071613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 65609, "typical_volume": 100507.6, "trend": 18.213333, "fair_value": 18.680241, "relative_strength": -29.380567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.228592, "energy": 22.260019, "activity_lines": [ 17.75, 17.744545, 17.859286, 18.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.549999, "volume": 123036, "typical_volume": 102849.75, "trend": 18.206667, "fair_value": 18.683071, "relative_strength": -28.639107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.313556, "energy": 31.27222, "activity_lines": [ 17.686666, 17.709091, 17.811667, 18.002366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 65264, "typical_volume": 89618.2, "trend": 18.196667, "fair_value": 18.687824, "relative_strength": -27.723133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.098923, "energy": 19.677689, "activity_lines": [ 17.776666, 17.76, 17.810476, 17.989032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 44702, "typical_volume": 88652.6, "trend": 18.193333, "fair_value": 18.690333, "relative_strength": -30.161383, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.44254, "energy": 16.124712, "activity_lines": [ 17.789999, 17.76909, 17.795476, 17.963441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }