{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cdb47e2-cf07-4c53-bd11-c72ad249d278", "symbol": "PBRN", "name": "Petr\u00f3leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.953, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.677, "architecture_energy": 20.543, "architecture_maturity": 33.785, "architecture_confidence": 42.514, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.72, "rotation_up": 52.04, "upward_expansion": 33.95, "deceleration": 47.21, "rotation_down": 19.95, "downward_expansion": 24.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.078666, 309.690002, 318.598417, 321.897711 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 308.0, "trend_reference": 315.030002, "distance_from_trend": -0.022315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.763664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.396553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186345, "excess_performance": 0.241011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093966, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1117, "relative_activity": 0.14117, "balance": 0.555729, "dry_up": 0.373683, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057178, "annualized_volatility": 0.399728, "from_high_reference": -0.219569, "from_low_reference": 0.501278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 315.030002, "fair_value_reference": 267.763664, "structural_low": 254.824341, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018513, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014913, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.137255, "worst_return": -0.25722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044948, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207005, "worst_return": -0.307171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034991, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.05582, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.346598, "worst_return": -0.297227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"typical_volume": 15402.85, "trend": 307.770187, "fair_value": 266.528885, "relative_strength": 18.330604, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.809694, "energy": 13.308831, "activity_lines": [ 307.510673, 304.422737, 320.56673, 320.264718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 336.98999, "volume": 5823, "typical_volume": 8127.7, "trend": 311.90841, "fair_value": 267.231684, "relative_strength": 20.108361, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.589124, "energy": 23.647919, "activity_lines": [ 319.859334, 309.621754, 320.961199, 322.149866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 308.0, "volume": 1117, "typical_volume": 7912.45, "trend": 315.030002, "fair_value": 267.763664, "relative_strength": 9.396553, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.676928, "energy": 20.542599, "activity_lines": [ 319.078666, 309.690002, 318.598417, 321.897711 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }