{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6cdbe836-9f56-476e-94a4-7802f040a80d",
    "symbol": "VNGD40",
    "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 40% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Distributing",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 54.124,
    "architecture_energy": 28.971,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.199,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.23,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.42,
        "rotation_up": 33.98,
        "upward_expansion": 58.11,
        "deceleration": 86.93,
        "rotation_down": 26.44,
        "downward_expansion": 19.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.969,
        26.994678,
        26.882437,
        26.736787
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 27.195,
    "trend_reference": 26.58723,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.022859,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 24.46639,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111525,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.336998,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.032264,
    "excess_performance": -0.138628,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022859,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012044,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.111525,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004785,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.11337,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020176,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032264,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.668963,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8698,
      "relative_activity": 1.444802,
      "balance": 0.668963,
      "dry_up": 1.451073,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.011629,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.063416,
      "from_high_reference": -0.017522,
      "from_low_reference": 0.08058
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.58723,
      "fair_value_reference": 24.46639,
      "structural_low": 25.530001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.011277,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002815,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.024679,
        "worst_return": -0.037463,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.02882,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016126,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.033459,
        "worst_return": -0.055676,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.039243,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03951,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.068757,
        "worst_return": 0.009729,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.043815,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046638,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.043815,
        "worst_return": 0.043815,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005399,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.030032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034104,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004955,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.019475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044275,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003535,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024029,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.032207,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.000952,
        "active": false
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 5466.5,
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        "relative_strength": -10.046723,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 59.697198,
        "energy": 45.281762,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.860001,
        "volume": 5722,
        "typical_volume": 5376.35,
        "trend": 26.538896,
        "fair_value": 24.397171,
        "relative_strength": -9.835855,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 46.58294,
        "energy": 35.37013,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.76,
        "volume": 15239,
        "typical_volume": 5673.5,
        "trend": 26.560896,
        "fair_value": 24.430581,
        "relative_strength": -10.470969,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.737622,
        "energy": 22.63469,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.889333,
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          26.828756,
          26.695877
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.195,
        "volume": 8698,
        "typical_volume": 6020.2,
        "trend": 26.58723,
        "fair_value": 24.46639,
        "relative_strength": -11.336998,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.123585,
        "energy": 28.970765,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}