{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6ce175c4-d8c9-464f-9975-5def5587b8b4", "symbol": "MLUAV", "name": "Embention Sistemas Inteligentes, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.945, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.728, "architecture_energy": 13.427, "architecture_maturity": 26.929, "architecture_confidence": 66.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.41, "rotation_up": 45.02, "upward_expansion": 38.0, "deceleration": 39.81, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 20.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.733334, 42.454546, 42.06381, 42.067097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.200001, "trend_reference": 42.526667, "distance_from_trend": -0.078225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.912821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.710833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.765736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183333, "excess_performance": -0.236645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.710833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.311804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59, "relative_activity": 0.184721, "balance": 3.311804, "dry_up": 0.443018, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093014, "annualized_volatility": 0.526655, "from_high_reference": -0.231373, "from_low_reference": 0.704348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.526667, "fair_value_reference": 22.912821, "structural_low": 37.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040275, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013259, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.049774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": 0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.341176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.412903, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, 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"volume": 21, "typical_volume": 431.3, "trend": 42.66, "fair_value": 22.219231, "relative_strength": 17.707502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.222678, "energy": 11.060499, "activity_lines": [ 41.866667, 42.309091, 41.617143, 41.994409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.0, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 378.4, "trend": 42.66, "fair_value": 22.462821, "relative_strength": 16.333187, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.889294, "energy": 11.077243, "activity_lines": [ 43.0, 42.810909, 41.970476, 42.145377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.0, "volume": 425, "typical_volume": 338.25, "trend": 42.753334, "fair_value": 22.70641, "relative_strength": 13.671337, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.476501, "energy": 36.54409, "activity_lines": [ 43.933333, 43.185455, 42.302857, 42.296344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 59, "typical_volume": 319.4, "trend": 42.526667, "fair_value": 22.912821, "relative_strength": -3.765736, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.727618, "energy": 13.426595, "activity_lines": [ 42.733334, 42.454546, 42.06381, 42.067097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }