{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6cf225e6-befc-4c46-a881-f50e7f791005", "symbol": "CSUSS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.083, "architecture_energy": 48.259, "architecture_maturity": 63.961, "architecture_confidence": 78.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.96, "rotation_up": 40.17, "upward_expansion": 68.4, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 20.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 605.041329, 607.058909, 595.226238, 580.776173 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 612.929993, "trend_reference": 563.864001, "distance_from_trend": 0.087017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 482.979039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269061, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.407497, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14112, "excess_performance": -0.029771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269061, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14112, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.064687, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5577, "relative_activity": 1.406983, "balance": 2.064687, "dry_up": 0.70469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022864, "annualized_volatility": 0.12484, "from_high_reference": -0.014265, "from_low_reference": 0.336175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 563.864001, "fair_value_reference": 482.979039, "structural_low": 503.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03542, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.045528, "worst_return": -0.08053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014171, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.085569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063782, "worst_return": -0.250377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076575, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.072954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150322, "worst_return": -0.110101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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575.176455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 593.22998, "volume": 1780, "typical_volume": 3892.75, "trend": 561.150336, "fair_value": 481.728078, "relative_strength": -1.679669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.14087, "energy": 48.356969, "activity_lines": [ 602.691333, 605.271274, 591.579239, 577.43555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 612.929993, "volume": 5577, "typical_volume": 3963.8, "trend": 563.864001, "fair_value": 482.979039, "relative_strength": -1.407497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.082502, "energy": 48.258838, "activity_lines": [ 605.041329, 607.058909, 595.226238, 580.776173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }