{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d06dad0-ad75-456c-87a2-a7c8dee321de", "symbol": "IVVD", "name": "Invivyd Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.135, "architecture_energy": 69.636, "architecture_maturity": 60.416, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 20.95, "upward_expansion": 14.61, "deceleration": 43.53, "rotation_down": 64.99, "downward_expansion": 90.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.66284, 0.73672, 0.925079, 1.087707 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.74, "trend_reference": 1.321923, "distance_from_trend": -0.44021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.593621, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.535649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.888007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.534591, "excess_performance": -0.722045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.44021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.535649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.454892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.57888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.427181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.534591, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17513209, "relative_activity": 0.914706, "balance": 0.425525, "dry_up": 0.80506, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.28578, "annualized_volatility": 1.073189, "from_high_reference": -0.75895, "from_low_reference": 0.532091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.321923, "fair_value_reference": 1.593621, "structural_low": 0.5277, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.134454, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.086079, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 2.742072, "worst_return": -0.314343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.233841, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.273717, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.471115, "worst_return": -0.524348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106145, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.331734, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.447898, "worst_return": -0.653797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.641694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.354332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.782123, "worst_return": -0.498734, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.351515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.402778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.301653, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.773608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.431373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.544715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146853, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -72.671783, "energy": 65.504951, "activity_lines": [ 0.858473, 0.933656, 1.1399, 1.299521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7425, "volume": 10854950, "typical_volume": 18711662.25, "trend": 1.516043, "fair_value": 1.610439, "relative_strength": -56.549738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.384148, "energy": 66.850631, "activity_lines": [ 0.81872, 0.881587, 1.086668, 1.246265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6114, "volume": 17281724, "typical_volume": 18987631.55, "trend": 1.446757, "fair_value": 1.605128, "relative_strength": -63.499027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.475925, "energy": 79.6561, "activity_lines": [ 0.7371, 0.819455, 1.025462, 1.187901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.535, "volume": 16005670, "typical_volume": 19177496.55, "trend": 1.381257, "fair_value": 1.599134, "relative_strength": -68.097032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.38549, "energy": 87.432928, "activity_lines": [ 0.653913, 0.754315, 0.96264, 1.129078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.74, "volume": 17513209, "typical_volume": 19146262.25, "trend": 1.321923, "fair_value": 1.593621, "relative_strength": -57.888007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.134593, "energy": 69.636082, "activity_lines": [ 0.66284, 0.73672, 0.925079, 1.087707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }