{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d10a889-c78f-44a5-b788-01a540639fad", "symbol": "215620", "name": "Heungkuk S&P Low Vol Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.235, "architecture_energy": 35.891, "architecture_maturity": 58.718, "architecture_confidence": 82.161, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.2, "rotation_up": 26.79, "upward_expansion": 17.81, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 33.07, "downward_expansion": 63.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 15732.333333, 15624.636364, 16161.714286, 16643.290323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16200.0, "trend_reference": 17117.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.0536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14079.702468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.309368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085004, "excess_performance": -0.314833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.025945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260, "relative_activity": 1.335045, "balance": 1.025945, "dry_up": 1.268293, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04689, "annualized_volatility": 0.2715, "from_high_reference": -0.173891, "from_low_reference": 0.10845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17117.5, "fair_value_reference": 14079.702468, "structural_low": 14615.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.017016, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.019843, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.055505, "worst_return": -0.077089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019711, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.024466, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114798, "worst_return": -0.012059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074105, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310458, "worst_return": 0.026701, "sufficient": false }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 15530.0, "volume": 123, "typical_volume": 1014.25, "trend": 17217.166667, "fair_value": 13955.949876, "relative_strength": -42.016332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.258183, "energy": 79.224005, "activity_lines": [ 15457.0, 15829.363636, 16675.785714, 17029.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15410.0, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 162.8, "trend": 17179.833333, "fair_value": 13985.650291, "relative_strength": -35.922918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.552838, "energy": 73.578192, "activity_lines": [ 15392.333333, 15675.454545, 16503.071429, 16913.11828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15585.0, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 155.6, "trend": 17143.333333, "fair_value": 14017.344589, "relative_strength": -32.913338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.575922, "energy": 52.382096, "activity_lines": [ 15462.333333, 15593.909091, 16363.642857, 16810.225806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15470.0, "volume": 705, "typical_volume": 183.35, "trend": 17114.166667, "fair_value": 14046.806703, "relative_strength": -31.43483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.508168, "energy": 49.222845, "activity_lines": [ 15502.666667, 15528.181818, 16222.452381, 16702.268817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16200.0, "volume": 260, "typical_volume": 194.75, "trend": 17117.5, "fair_value": 14079.702468, "relative_strength": -23.309368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.234529, "energy": 35.891462, "activity_lines": [ 15732.333333, 15624.636364, 16161.714286, 16643.290323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }