{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d1117e9-e8dd-44c1-8f9f-137065ba9d95", "symbol": "ABTEC", "name": "Aqua Bio Technology ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.815, "architecture_energy": 33.878, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.931, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.08, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 20.28, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 33.24, "downward_expansion": 56.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.823333, 4.761273, 4.874905, 5.360923 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.9, "trend_reference": 6.608533, "distance_from_trend": -0.258534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.261459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.953003, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -75.184344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.499994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.258534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.953003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004364, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.751843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.071062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26648, "relative_activity": 0.59338, "balance": 1.071062, "dry_up": 0.347771, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126374, "annualized_volatility": 0.833725, "from_high_reference": -0.931373, "from_low_reference": 0.225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.608533, "fair_value_reference": 104.261459, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.068652, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.080513, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 1.08547, "worst_return": -0.657674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.184682, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.20014, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.53371, "worst_return": -0.77439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.364583, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.438819, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.203711, "worst_return": -0.77907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.003062, "energy": 49.100226, "activity_lines": [ 4.732, 4.717273, 4.963, 5.708604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.79, "volume": 17453, "typical_volume": 44450.7, "trend": 7.219367, "fair_value": 105.492831, "relative_strength": -76.583835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.788723, "energy": 41.622105, "activity_lines": [ 4.76, 4.732364, 4.907738, 5.510559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.9, "volume": 26648, "typical_volume": 44908.8, "trend": 6.608533, "fair_value": 104.261459, "relative_strength": -75.184344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.815228, "energy": 33.878164, "activity_lines": [ 4.823333, 4.761273, 4.874905, 5.360923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }