{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d18c5ee-a0bb-4c38-a664-05f3218b713c", "symbol": "9042", "name": "China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited - Select OFC Bitcoin ETF Fund", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.648, "architecture_energy": 38.668, "architecture_maturity": 35.514, "architecture_confidence": 58.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.66, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 66.65, "rotation_down": 34.75, "downward_expansion": 63.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.997733, 0.988145, 1.038419, 1.062469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.999, "trend_reference": 1.105767, "distance_from_trend": -0.096554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.331882, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.331944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012846, "excess_performance": 0.020736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.715898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7195500, "relative_activity": 12.442289, "balance": 15.715898, "dry_up": 3.234814, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053361, "annualized_volatility": 0.32478, "from_high_reference": -0.488741, "from_low_reference": 0.09901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.105767, "fair_value_reference": 1.331882, "structural_low": 0.909, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.129577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", 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221300.0, "trend": 1.119733, "fair_value": 1.334703, "relative_strength": -26.315891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.219845, "energy": 41.879309, "activity_lines": [ 0.993733, 0.987964, 1.046057, 1.070258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.999, "volume": 7195500, "typical_volume": 578310.0, "trend": 1.105767, "fair_value": 1.331882, "relative_strength": -24.331944, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.648146, "energy": 38.66801, "activity_lines": [ 0.997733, 0.988145, 1.038419, 1.062469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }