{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d1eedea-b127-41fa-9667-faa2ded7002d", "symbol": "CHALET", "name": "Chalet Hotels Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.42, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.369, "architecture_energy": 30.347, "architecture_maturity": 13.857, "architecture_confidence": 53.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 52.95, "upward_expansion": 49.53, "deceleration": 35.05, "rotation_down": 24.75, "downward_expansion": 10.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 836.443339, 828.620004, 809.665241, 800.57011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 859.700012, "trend_reference": 801.056667, "distance_from_trend": 0.073207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 812.442956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.875574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012543, "excess_performance": 0.056253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008756, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 558988, "relative_activity": 1.132139, "balance": 0.841947, "dry_up": 1.080563, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059887, "annualized_volatility": 0.279916, "from_high_reference": -0.195727, "from_low_reference": 0.243509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 801.056667, "fair_value_reference": 812.442956, "structural_low": 691.349976, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001526, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.003438, "worst_return": -0.092013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.19994, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.1362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298975, "worst_return": 0.100904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.084534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202105, "worst_return": -0.033037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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808.009087, "relative_strength": -1.40694, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.844928, "energy": 50.002741, "activity_lines": [ 835.333337, 818.420911, 800.060478, 796.456991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 810.0, "volume": 619078, "typical_volume": 514706.45, "trend": 801.431667, "fair_value": 810.083695, "relative_strength": -4.259376, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.978048, "energy": 30.574267, "activity_lines": [ 827.306669, 819.138184, 802.678573, 796.810861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 859.700012, "volume": 558988, "typical_volume": 493745.05, "trend": 801.056667, "fair_value": 812.442956, "relative_strength": 0.875574, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.368677, "energy": 30.34686, "activity_lines": [ 836.443339, 828.620004, 809.665241, 800.57011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }