{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d2684f1-8962-4b74-b88e-20f311d2c4ec", "symbol": "FBK", "name": "FinecoBank Banca Fineco S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.598, "architecture_energy": 88.879, "architecture_maturity": 27.546, "architecture_confidence": 81.258, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 80.68, "upward_expansion": 99.04, "deceleration": 39.48, "rotation_down": 12.65, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.796667, 23.254364, 22.333746, 21.57273 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.440001, "trend_reference": 20.900894, "distance_from_trend": 0.169328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.06431, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.521385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.954597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132005, "excess_performance": -0.038887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169328, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035018, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.521385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039546, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.370319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7759555, "relative_activity": 0.964922, "balance": 1.370319, "dry_up": 1.012018, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041471, "annualized_volatility": 0.332061, "from_high_reference": -0.024351, "from_low_reference": 0.445716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.900894, "fair_value_reference": 16.06431, "structural_low": 16.90512, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00065, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.00571, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.151931, "worst_return": -0.179628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022785, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.031294, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.16626, "worst_return": -0.217499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077601, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.025086, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.22961, "worst_return": -0.120194, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 7300751, "typical_volume": 9337029.75, "trend": 20.606081, "fair_value": 15.766435, "relative_strength": -0.475143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.762228, "energy": 76.544551, "activity_lines": [ 22.522, 22.03202, 21.210975, 20.799561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.9, "volume": 9588102, "typical_volume": 9063231.45, "trend": 20.658414, "fair_value": 15.835116, "relative_strength": 1.160316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.695553, "energy": 73.349755, "activity_lines": [ 22.680667, 22.262546, 21.448004, 20.947556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.74, "volume": 7645425, "typical_volume": 8495369.8, "trend": 20.741315, "fair_value": 15.907138, "relative_strength": 4.94693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.337899, "energy": 84.567429, "activity_lines": [ 23.054667, 22.607273, 21.747652, 21.146368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.719999, "volume": 7560055, "typical_volume": 8247662.1, "trend": 20.810067, "fair_value": 15.98187, "relative_strength": 3.977872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.360948, "energy": 82.654146, "activity_lines": [ 23.372, 22.890364, 22.020025, 21.338541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.440001, "volume": 7759555, "typical_volume": 8041638.55, "trend": 20.900894, "fair_value": 16.06431, "relative_strength": 3.954597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.597896, "energy": 88.879296, "activity_lines": [ 23.796667, 23.254364, 22.333746, 21.57273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }