{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d26afba-5ff5-4311-99d1-664038dd31c2", "symbol": "TGP", "name": "Tekmar Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.405, "architecture_energy": 32.866, "architecture_maturity": 43.095, "architecture_confidence": 78.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.2, "rotation_up": 31.05, "upward_expansion": 59.32, "deceleration": 70.74, "rotation_down": 25.82, "downward_expansion": 16.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.1455, 0.141613, 0.134583 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.124917, "distance_from_trend": 0.160774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.090992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.593547, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.232336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.611111, "excess_performance": 0.559876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160774, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.593547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.332323, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.611111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.427099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525862, "relative_activity": 0.48762, "balance": 9.427099, "dry_up": 0.373109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070557, "annualized_volatility": 0.461489, "from_high_reference": -0.064516, "from_low_reference": 2.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.124917, "fair_value_reference": 0.090992, "structural_low": 0.08393, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058481, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.073752, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.219512, "worst_return": -0.182796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204545, "worst_return": -0.244898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.145833, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204082, "worst_return": -0.243011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.790125, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.707768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.682292, "worst_return": -0.102041, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.451429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.465116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"relative_strength": 42.368268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.728015, "energy": 42.041938, "activity_lines": [ 0.145333, 0.144477, 0.137851, 0.130476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.145, "volume": 229485, "typical_volume": 1393379.7, "trend": 0.12375, "fair_value": 0.090736, "relative_strength": 38.720288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.216783, "energy": 35.726044, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.145068, 0.139339, 0.131874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 671753, "typical_volume": 1124783.0, "trend": 0.12425, "fair_value": 0.090928, "relative_strength": 35.312833, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.499672, "energy": 32.630681, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.145432, 0.140577, 0.133245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 525862, "typical_volume": 1078426.45, "trend": 0.124917, "fair_value": 0.090992, "relative_strength": 33.232336, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.405063, "energy": 32.865717, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.1455, 0.141613, 0.134583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }