{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d271021-5f8c-4645-b77e-499670d01b06", "symbol": "XBTI", "name": "DDA Physical Bitcoin ETP A", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.177, "architecture_energy": 34.816, "architecture_maturity": 73.554, "architecture_confidence": 85.943, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.47, "rotation_up": 27.15, "upward_expansion": 17.39, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 35.04, "downward_expansion": 65.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.918567, 4.8638, 5.062886, 5.157318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.989, "trend_reference": 5.348483, "distance_from_trend": -0.067212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.060599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.762687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03501, "excess_performance": -0.117893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03501, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5, "relative_activity": 0.378788, "balance": 0.823529, "dry_up": 0.32197, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046572, "annualized_volatility": 0.363512, "from_high_reference": -0.474787, "from_low_reference": 0.083858 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.348483, "fair_value_reference": 6.060599, "structural_low": 4.603, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.027534, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.023346, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.394768, "worst_return": -0.260326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.266607, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.266309, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.827914, "worst_return": -0.30579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.502655, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.446459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.32997, "worst_return": -0.218156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105269, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083858, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.2835, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 995.0, "trend": 2.390757, "fair_value": 3.054097, "relative_strength": 9.445009, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.121379, "energy": 88.002099, "activity_lines": [ 4.730867, 4.999027, 5.228329, 5.35851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.9095, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 12.6, "trend": 5.593183, "fair_value": 5.999324, "relative_strength": -34.653154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.000044, "energy": 79.93545, "activity_lines": [ 4.7914, 4.938127, 5.193571, 5.310245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.855, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 12.65, "trend": 5.531383, "fair_value": 6.014131, "relative_strength": -34.829866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.886293, "energy": 60.59183, "activity_lines": [ 4.813333, 4.881909, 5.154038, 5.26262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.986, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 12.8, "trend": 5.47605, "fair_value": 6.030045, "relative_strength": -32.002615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.834494, "energy": 45.400349, "activity_lines": [ 4.8777, 4.868836, 5.126986, 5.227434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.814, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 12.95, "trend": 5.41375, "fair_value": 6.044856, "relative_strength": -33.328354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.234801, "energy": 40.528568, "activity_lines": [ 4.875233, 4.841673, 5.085267, 5.184722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.989, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 13.2, "trend": 5.348483, "fair_value": 6.060599, "relative_strength": -30.762687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.176597, "energy": 34.815843, "activity_lines": [ 4.918567, 4.8638, 5.062886, 5.157318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }