{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d2f9cb1-e89d-4c8e-9e6e-49d5e8f1db49", "symbol": "VJPN", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.295, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.354, "architecture_energy": 38.667, "architecture_maturity": 59.627, "architecture_confidence": 72.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.52, "rotation_up": 40.92, "upward_expansion": 66.77, "deceleration": 85.44, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 16.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.386666, 44.452245, 43.816136, 43.091965 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.459999, "trend_reference": 42.227934, "distance_from_trend": 0.076539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.597512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.319741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106644, "excess_performance": -0.064248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.313967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106644, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4191, "relative_activity": 0.303996, "balance": 1.051639, "dry_up": 1.329993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026042, "annualized_volatility": 0.184165, "from_high_reference": -0.001647, "from_low_reference": 0.290659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.227934, "fair_value_reference": 34.597512, "structural_low": 38.240002, "invalidation": "A 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010831, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009526, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 45.044998, "volume": 34385, "typical_volume": 13215.9, "trend": 41.426682, "fair_value": 34.191366, "relative_strength": -1.092047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.256424, "energy": 83.64672, "activity_lines": [ 44.881973, 44.338022, 43.134565, 42.457393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.970001, "volume": 23710, "typical_volume": 13839.0, "trend": 41.638552, "fair_value": 34.293123, "relative_strength": -2.175318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.727834, "energy": 56.986691, "activity_lines": [ 44.64, 44.359216, 43.299035, 42.621478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.884998, "volume": 16709, "typical_volume": 13772.65, "trend": 41.844594, "fair_value": 34.388142, "relative_strength": -2.246638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.960161, "energy": 45.671743, "activity_lines": [ 44.335999, 44.336814, 43.450822, 42.76641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.465, "volume": 28733, "typical_volume": 14419.5, "trend": 42.034305, "fair_value": 34.486234, "relative_strength": -3.84565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.561672, "energy": 31.813641, "activity_lines": [ 43.994666, 44.217501, 43.546656, 42.870952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.459999, "volume": 4191, "typical_volume": 13786.35, "trend": 42.227934, "fair_value": 34.597512, "relative_strength": -2.319741, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.353507, "energy": 38.667228, "activity_lines": [ 44.386666, 44.452245, 43.816136, 43.091965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }