{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6d3145f7-32b7-49b0-93db-49862476384a", "symbol": "NVDG", "name": "LEVERAGE SHARES 2X LONG NVDA DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.148, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.072, "architecture_energy": 23.072, "architecture_maturity": 32.308, "architecture_confidence": 59.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.07, "rotation_up": 44.12, "upward_expansion": 60.05, "deceleration": 55.45, "rotation_down": 23.21, "downward_expansion": 19.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.548667, 18.017091, 18.306164, 17.81132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.768, "trend_reference": 17.251243, "distance_from_trend": 0.203855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.687456, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.801784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.281975, "excess_performance": 0.094522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.203855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068018, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.281975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1153770, "relative_activity": 0.733608, "balance": 0.676049, "dry_up": 0.649272, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14807, "annualized_volatility": 0.722764, "from_high_reference": -0.159497, "from_low_reference": 0.682982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.251243, "fair_value_reference": 14.687456, "structural_low": 12.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.089135, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029019, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.089135, "worst_return": -0.089135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095359, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 12.807448, "volume": 466, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 12.786136, "volume": 148898, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", 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"activity_lines": [ 17.444, 18.105091, 18.027228, 17.529233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.27, "volume": 1156333, "typical_volume": 1631965.95, "trend": 17.110072, "fair_value": 14.551198, "relative_strength": -8.255031, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.953928, "energy": 12.738435, "activity_lines": [ 17.354, 17.815091, 18.028469, 17.542413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.95, "volume": 797915, "typical_volume": 1595218.6, "trend": 17.121877, "fair_value": 14.591184, "relative_strength": -2.937194, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.072795, "energy": 8.19001, "activity_lines": [ 17.546667, 17.707818, 18.081853, 17.596602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.79, "volume": 976513, "typical_volume": 1587969.5, "trend": 17.107997, "fair_value": 14.616752, "relative_strength": -9.40364, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.882734, "energy": 4.537764, "activity_lines": [ 17.42, 17.468727, 18.008904, 17.57519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.768, "volume": 1153770, "typical_volume": 1572733.95, "trend": 17.251243, "fair_value": 14.687456, "relative_strength": 6.801784, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.072382, "energy": 23.071859, "activity_lines": [ 18.548667, 18.017091, 18.306164, 17.81132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }